Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Alert

A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."